The NHTSA wants the next generation of fuel economy improvements to last until 2032. Automakers may need 58 mpg fleets. Even though it’s unfinished, the aim is to promote electrification, especially electric cars. Reuters reports that 2027–2032 autos will reduce pollution and gas use. By 2026, the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) goals would rise from 49 to 58 mpg, with cars increasing by 2% and light trucks by 4% per year. Between 2030 and 2035, it would increase heavy-duty pickup truck and van forecasts by 10% annually. The NHTSA’s plan reduces fuel prices by $1,043, while vehicle costs rise by $932. $111 will be saved. Americans will save $18 billion on gas. Electrification will help (but not be necessary) to avoid massive fines for violating CAFE limits because drivetrains aren’t considered. Even while their proposal reduces the impact of extreme outliers like electric cars (EVs), the revised CAFE standard will still require many automakers to improve the fuel economy of their other vehicles. Instead of promoting the inefficient all-EV strategy, this would require more electric cars. PHEV sales could also achieve the target. (It could also compel light truck companies to cut costs so much that crossovers become less cost-effective, making people seek cheaper vehicles.) 58 mpg is a lofty target, even though automobiles today get approximately the same gas. The 2023 Toyota Prius gets 57 mpg, similar to a Japanese kei car’s city mileage. Truck sales would remain high, so vehicles must exceed CAFE’s 58-mpg objective to compensate. However, manufacturers would be more concerned with conquering a much steeper climb in three years before attempting 58. NHTSA accepts a fleet average of 49 mpg by 2026 under CAFE criteria. This would be at least as much as the 2004–2019 increase in CAFE standards from 23.4 to 34.6 fleet mpg. In six years, getting from 49 mpg to 58 mpg isn’t much of an improvement, and diminishing returns will make each mpg harder to achieve.
